I guess, @StackHodler isn't active…

Chris Krause — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 10:43:50 GMT

I guess, StackHodler isn't active on nostr anymore. So I'm going to post on eof his Twitter-Posts.

"Absolutely nobody wants to read bearish Bitcoin takes on here.

Bull posts feel much better to read and to write.

But I've had a bearish tweet pinned to my profile for the past 7 days because I wanted to be as transparent as possible.

I've bull-posted nonstop since the 2022 lows.

And I'll repeat: Long-term, being a Bitcoin permabull is the only rational strategy.

But one thing I learned last cycle was that people (including me) will easily overlook bearish signals because they HOPE they aren't true.

But http://Hope.com isn't a Strategy (oh god, the headlines from the next bottom write themselves)

In 2022, I stayed bullish the entire way down from the peak because I couldn't believe that $69K was actually the top.

And I'll be honest with you: It hurt.

Mostly because my expectations were completely out of sync with reality.

Our expectations for this cycle are much higher than $108K, so we tell ourselves we couldn't possibly have peaked already.

We have to go higher in 2025, right?

The truth is, nobody knows for sure.

We just went through the short term holder realized price of $92K.

And like I said in my tweet a week ago, we may need to revisit the 200 day moving average around $82K.

We did the same thing last year after a big run, so that wouldn't be abnormal at all.

But here's what's most important:

You need to know exactly what you want for you and your family in the short, medium, and long term.

You need a plan and you need to be at peace with it no matter where the market goes.

For many of you, you are in stack-only mode.

You haven't reached financial escape velocity yet.

If that's the case, then you have the luxury of viewing a potential correction as a chance to reach your stacking goals faster.

If we go lower, you will be getting way more Sats for your dollar than you would have been.

That's a win.

Where it gets tricky is if you have 90%+ of your portfolio in BTC and have accumulated life changing levels of wealth over many years.

Those people have hard decisions to make.

I obviously don't give personal financial advice.

But personally I always balance three ideas:

1. Your time is more scarce than Bitcoin.

2. The physical and mental health of you and your family is worth more than all the money in the world.

3. If you do sell BTC, you will likely never get it back.

If you are in that position, you need to think for yourself and make tough decisions.

Personally I remain extremely bullish on BTC long-term, but I continue with my strategy of maintaining a cash cushion that will help me ride through any extended downward volatility without being forced to sell BTC.

The last thing I'll say: It doesn't have to be all or nothing.

So many people on here (including me in the past) feel like they need 100% exposure to BTC.

But that's an extreme position.

There's nothing wrong with rebalancing your portfolio at strategic moments.

You'll always hear "you don't have enough Bitcoin" - but the reality is that if it truly goes where we think it will go, then you likely DO have enough.

What none of us have enough of is time.

In the depths of the last bear market, after buying all the way down to the bottom and watching most of my gains evaporate...

I remember thinking that I would never again put myself in such a painful position.

I promised myself that after the next bull market, I would focus on my health and my family first and foremost.

Maybe it's today, or maybe it's sometime this Fall at $400K...

But one day the next bear market will begin.

And while everyone on the timeline argues about whether or not we topped...

I will be making memories with my son and working on baby #2 because I executed the plan and stayed focused on what matters most.

Even if you dislike me now because I've now posted a couple of bearish things in a row: I wish the same for you 🫡 🥂"